With news coverage about the West Nile Virus becoming much more
commonplace, so is the drive to develop a vaccine. As the virus
spreads to other parts of the United States, several drug companies
have considered developing new medications. Although creating a
West Nile vaccine may sound like a no-brainer, drug companies remain
skeptical, especially since a similar drug for Lyme disease never
took off and was eventually dropped due to low demand.
So some companies are moving ahead cautiously, waiting to see how
the disease spreads before committing fully to a vaccine. The reason
companies are monitoring West Nile: This vaccine’s potential
market could exceed $300 million.
Beyond economics, however, public health officials are feeling
a sense of urgency. Though most who catch West Nile don’t get
sick, more than 400 people have died from it in the last five years.
And there’s no cure. Here’s a breakdown of how West Nile
has affected the public so far:
- The elderly and people with weak immune systems are particularly
susceptible
- Twenty percent of those who get West Nile have symptoms like
fever and muscle aches
- Almost one out of 150 contract the worst form of the virus,
an inflammation of the brain
Officials believe West Nile, discovered in 1999, will become a
menace, but how big is uncertain. Why? Because mosquitoes spread
the disease, climate and weather are factors.
The Fear Factor
The only vaccine for West Nile available is for horses. To encourage
development of a vaccine for humans, the National Institutes of
Health has offered multi-million dollar grants. Two companies, Acambis
and Hawaii Biotech, have begun the race to the finish line in that
arena. Another variable in the race to provide a profitable vaccine:
The fear factor that makes people wear long-sleeved shirts and long
pants all the time or avoid the problem altogether by staying indoors.
Such concerns during last year’s flu season drove demand for
vaccines, and have dried up the 100 million doses available for
the upcoming winter season. But, during a mild flu season, drug
makers destroyed millions of unused and unsold vaccines. And a 2002
report by the CDC found that Lyme disease could be more easily treated
with antibiotics, which soon signaled the end of the vaccine.
And even with two vaccines in development, there are no guarantees.
In trials for the Acambis vaccine, two people showed signs of protein
in their urine, meaning a sign of kidney damage. In the case of
Hawaii Biotech, their vaccine would eventually require a booster.
Climatic and seasonal changes from year-to-year make developing
a vaccine a gamble because the fear factor may or may not warrant
it. For one executive, it’s a lot like “trying to analyze
fear.”
Los
Angeles Times August 9, 2004
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