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By Michael R. Gordon And
Eric Schmitt
The Bush administration is putting aside
the American military's longstanding insistence on using overwhelming
force to vanquish its enemy. Instead, Pentagon planners are
now focusing on commando raids and limited air strikes to
root out Osama bin Laden's terrorist network in Afghanistan.
Soon after the attacks on the World Trade
Center and the Pentagon, President Bush and his top aides
said the United States was preparing a decisive military response.
But top administration officials are signaling more strongly
that it is not going to be a war in the classic sense.
The United
States is not planning a huge air bombardment to decimate
a foe that would then be overpowered by a ground attack, the
approach Washington used to great effect during the Persian
Gulf war in 1991.
Instead, Pentagon officials say, the American
military response will be more discriminating, potentially
more prolonged and, in a sense, more risky.
In Afghanistan, the United States military
faces two of the most difficult tasks it has ever confronted.
It must track down an enemy leader and his fellow terrorists
on their home turf. And it must try to remove the foreign
regime that shelters him.
All of this must be accomplished in a
distant arena where the United States has no bases of its
own and where the presence of a large American force would
bring protests from many Muslims in the region. Nor does the
United States have longstanding military allies in the region.
Pakistan and the Central Asian nations
are not steadfast allies as much as partners of convenience.
That has led Pentagon planners to develop
a strategy that puts a premium on special operations, limited
air strikes and the potential use of proxy Afghan forces resisting
the Taliban like the Northern Alliance - not on a major use
of firepower.
The United States' Army's 82nd Airborne
and 101st Air Assault divisions are on alert and could provide
reinforcements for American special units if Mr. bin Laden
and his men are cornered and put up a fight. United States
Marines could be brought in from the Indian Ocean as well.
Still, officials are not talking about
the occupation of Afghanistan.
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz
provided a few clues to the new tactics during a trip to NATO
headquarters in Brussels earlier this week when he implied
that air strikes would be used to force Mr. bin Laden and
his comrades from their sanctuaries so they could be tracked,
captured or attacked.
"Generating information about targets
is a crucial part of it," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "We
don't believe in just demonstrating that our military is capable
of bombing things. The whole world knows that. What we want
to do is be effective."
President
Bush made a similar point today, when he pointed out that
the United States had no interest in replicating Moscow's
invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.
"I am fully aware of the difficulties
the Russians had in Afghanistan," Mr. Bush said. "It
is very hard to fight a conventional war - a guerrilla war
with conventional forces. And we understand that. That's why
I have explained to the American people that the new war on
terror is going to be a different war."
To be sure, were the United States to
face a more conventional foe, like Iraq or North Korea, it
would use all the military force at its disposal, the doctrine
pioneered by Colin L. Powell, when he served as chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff during the gulf war. But in the
current war on terrorism, the Powell Doctrine has been shelved,
at least temporarily.
Quietly, the
new strategy is already being put into action. American
special units are preparing for an Afghan mission. They could
carry out small attacks, scout terrain and potential bases
for heavier forces and work with anti-Taliban forces within
Afghanistan.
Pentagon officials said that no American
commandos were currently in Afghanistan, but left open the
possibility that they might have already carried out reconnaissance
missions there.
A commando mission is potentially very
risky. The botched effort to capture aides to a Somali warlord
in 1993 by the Delta Force, an elite American commando unit,
led to the death of 18 servicemen. The British Special Air
Service suffered numerous casualties during the gulf war trying
to hunt Scud missiles.
Afghanistan
is one of the most heavily mined countries in the world, a
threat to any army operating there.
The surface-to-air missiles that could
threaten American aircraft -- shoulder-fired Stinger missiles,
which the C.I.A. provided to the mujahedeen fighters during
the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, are particularly worrisome.
It is unclear how many of the Stingers are still in working
order, but it is clear that the CIA was not able to retrieve
many of them after the war.
To help American forces in the region,
the Pentagon has realigned communications satellites to hover
closer to Afghanistan to increase the band width available
and to enhance the accuracy of satellite-guided bombs launched
from warplanes, an American general said.
Air Force officials are seeking to speed
the process of providing fresh intelligence on fleeting terrorist
targets to bomber pilots or commandos on the ground, said
a retired senior military officer. In past operations, much
of information has been filtered through air command posts,
delaying attacks on moving targets.
Mr. Wolfowitz also told NATO allies in
his closed-door meeting earlier this week that the United
States might shift units that operate reconnaissance drones,
unmanned surveillance planes, from Balkan peacekeeping duties.
He told the allies that the drones were at a premium and that
the United States military had lost three Predator drones.
The United States is also flying U-2 flights from the Middle
East.
While it is not
easy to pinpoint the location of Mr. bin Laden or his allies,
there are some targets - or what the Pentagon likes to call
"centers of gravity."
First, there is the effort to track Mr.
bin Laden and his allies himself. In addition to special units,
the United States can use local Pashtun tribesman, Pakistani
intelligence and its own resources.
By bombing
suspected sanctuaries, the United States could force him to
move or communicate, which might provide new intelligence
or targets.
The Taliban government, which is sheltering
him, is also a potential target. White House "guidance"
on Afghanistan policy says, "The Taliban will hand over
the terrorists, or they will share their fate."
The Taliban's forces include an Arab brigade,
thousands of fighters whom Mr. bin Laden has recruited and
who have been used to fight the Northern Alliance and to put
down challenges to the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar.
Other potential targets include the Taliban
Air Force. With a dozen or so aging Soviet fighters, it is
no match for a Western air force in a conventional sense.
But it can be used to suppress dissent.
Taking on some of these elements could
also involve traditional conventional forces. Mr. Bush was
careful not to exclude their use today but also sought to
dampen expectations of an all-out air and ground offensive.
"It will require the best of intelligence,"
he said. "There may or may not be a conventional component
to it. I said loud and clear, sometimes people will be able
to see what we do on the television screens. Other times the
American people won't be able to see what we're doing."
New York Times
September 28, 2001
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